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Since May, alumina has rebounded from historical lows, gradually climbing to a one-month high. Last Friday, positive fundamental news suddenly emerged, causing futures prices to surge and even hit the daily limit during trading.

Is the significant rebound in alumina primarily driven by disruptions in Guinea's mining policy? How will the revocation of mining permits in Guinea impact the supply side? What is the current operating status of domestic alumina enterprises? Has supply-side pressure eased compared to before? Can the short-term strong momentum in alumina continue? What key influencing factors need to be closely monitored in the future? Wenhua Finance's [Institutional Consultation] section invited alumina futures experts to provide a detailed explanation.

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Is the significant rebound in alumina primarily driven by disruptions in Guinea's mining policy? How will the revocation of mining permits in Guinea impact the supply side?

Liu Peiyang, Senior Researcher, Investment Consulting Department, Zhongyuan Futures: According to Mysteel reports, on the morning of May 16th, local time, Guinea's Ministry of Mines issued a cease-and-desist order for the Axis mining area. This mining area includes companies like Shunda Mining, with an involved capacity of approximately 40 million tons/year, and an actual output of 23 million tons in 2024 (mainly including Shunda 13 million tons and China Power Eleventh Bureau 10 million tons). The recovery time is currently uncertain. This is a further escalation of bauxite supply disruptions following the Guinean government's revocation of mining permits for 46 mining companies on May 15th. Affected by this, multiple alumina futures contracts surged on Friday evening, with some even touching the daily limit during trading.

Liu Chao, Senior Nonferrous Metals Researcher, Research and Consulting Department, Bank of China International Futures: Guinea is one of the world's largest bauxite producers, with its bauxite output reaching 140 million tons in 2024, accounting for 69.4% of China's imports, making it the most significant source of bauxite supply for China. On May 14, 2025, the Guinean government announced the revocation of multiple bauxite mining concessions and industrial and semi-industrial mining permits. This move aims to strengthen the recovery of claims or concessions for mining areas that have not started operations or have underutilized permits. This serves as a warning to large operators in the world's second-largest bauxite producing country, signaling increased supervision over major operators. Additionally, Guinea is about to enter its rainy season (May to October), during which bauxite shipments typically decrease due to rainfall, further exacerbating supply concerns. These factors collectively led to market expectations of reduced bauxite supply, thereby driving a significant rebound in alumina prices.

Feng Na, Jinrui Futures: I prefer to view the alumina rebound in two stages. First, the rebound from below 2700 to around 3000, which I believe was due to supply-side reductions leading to a tight spot market, a futures-spot price inversion, stimulating enthusiasm for warehouse receipt purchases, and the digestion of warehouse receipt inventory pressure, resulting in a return of futures and spot prices. Second, the period above 3000, which I believe is a risk-off rally caused by the potential for unexpected production cuts in both mines and some domestic alumina plants. From the current situation, the cancellation of mining permits in Guinea could, in extreme cases, invalidate the previous expectation of a bauxite surplus, making the short-selling strategy based on falling bauxite prices illogical for distant contracts. However, looking at distant prices, we believe there will also be pressure around 3200, mainly because we think that in extreme production cut scenarios, while bauxite might not be in surplus, there could still be a surplus in alumina (AO) capacity and production.

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What is the current operating status of domestic alumina enterprises? Has supply-side pressure eased compared to before?

Liu Peiyang, Senior Researcher, Investment Consulting Department, Zhongyuan Futures: According to SMM data, as of May 15th, the total national metallurgical-grade alumina capacity stood at 109.22 million tons/year, with an operating capacity of 84.12 million tons/year. The national weekly alumina operating rate decreased by 2.66 percentage points week-on-week to 77.02%, mainly due to concentrated maintenance and production cuts in Guangxi and Guizhou. Currently, alumina operations are at a low point for the year, with more capacity undergoing maintenance, leading to reduced supply pressure, tighter spot availability, and a significant decline in inventory.

Liu Chao, Senior Nonferrous Metals Researcher, Research and Consulting Department, Bank of China International Futures: The decline in the operating rate of domestic alumina enterprises is primarily due to a significant drop in profits. According to SMM data, the average operating rate of China's alumina enterprises in April 2025 was 84.6%, lower than 86.1% in March and 86.7% in February. Alumina profits fell from 2,600 yuan/ton in December 2024 to a previous low of 83 yuan/ton. Although they have rebounded recently to 280 yuan/ton, production enterprises that rely entirely on externally purchased bauxite for processing nationwide are still on the verge of losses. Furthermore, some previously planned projects have been delayed, and China's alumina output in April decreased by 6.17% month-on-month, indicating a shift in expectations for high alumina output growth.

Feng Na, Jinrui Futures: The current operating rate in the alumina industry remains low, with annualized capacity still around 86 million tons. According to plans, capacities that were reduced or undergoing maintenance will gradually resume operations in late May, and incremental projects will also gradually contribute output starting in late May. The marginal supply and demand will shift from a deficit of around 3 million tons to near equilibrium.

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Can the short-term strong momentum in alumina continue? What key influencing factors need to be closely monitored in the future?

Liu Peiyang, Senior Researcher, Investment Consulting Department, Zhongyuan Futures: In the short term, bauxite disruptions coupled with supply-side contraction have boosted market sentiment for alumina, favoring price rebound and recovery. However, in the medium term, expectations of oversupply persist. According to SMM data, 11.4 million tons of new alumina capacity are expected to be commissioned domestically in 2025, with an additional 4 million tons expected from India and Indonesia overseas, far exceeding the growth rate of electrolytic aluminum demand. After a significant decline in alumina prices, industry profits have significantly tightened, even turning to losses. In the future, prices may operate around costs, with the biggest risk remaining on the supply side, such as limited bauxite supply from Guinea or new capacity commissioning progressing slower than expected.

Liu Chao, Senior Nonferrous Metals Researcher, Research and Consulting Department, Bank of China International Futures: The short-term strong momentum in alumina is expected to continue. Currently, the operating rate of downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises remains high at 97%, and seasonally, the high operating rate of electrolytic aluminum will continue until September. Guinea's policy disruptions are still unfolding, and the supply-demand mismatch supports short-term alumina prices.

Key factors to watch in the future include: subsequent developments in Guinea's policy, whether the Guinean government will further expand the scope of mining permit revocations, and the resumption of production in relevant mining areas. Domestic alumina new capacity situation: attention should be paid to whether projects previously delayed due to profit declines will accelerate resumption due to price rebounds. Changes in electrolytic aluminum operating rates: the high operating rate of electrolytic aluminum is a crucial support for alumina demand, and its subsequent changes need to be monitored. Other supply alternatives, such as bauxite supply from Indonesia, Vietnam, etc., and the increase in recycled aluminum capacity.

In summary, Guinea's mining policy disruptions are the main reason for the current significant rebound in alumina prices, and the revocation of its mining permits has had a notable impact on the supply side. The operating rate of domestic alumina enterprises has declined, and supply-side pressure has somewhat eased. The short-term strong momentum in alumina is expected to continue, but key factors such as Guinea's policy developments, domestic capacity changes, and electrolytic aluminum operating rates need to be closely monitored.

Feng Na, Jinrui Futures: We believe that alumina prices have likely bottomed out because the previous prices below 2700 were basically below the 80th percentile of bauxite at , meaning we consider the prices to have fallen relatively deeply. However, the issue of overcapacity in the alumina industry remains prominent until effective policies are seen, so we do not see much upward room for prices, and spot prices are likely to face some pressure around 3300. We believe prices will remain strong in the short term, and in the future, we still recommend buying alumina on dips. This is partly due to the risk of policy-driven production cuts in domestic alumina in the future, and partly due to the risk of implicit cost increases at the mine end. We are also monitoring updates to mining policies in traditional bauxite exporting countries.